ChestTally
Fortnite Token Odds Calculator
Enter the chests you have opened and see your real chance of the Pirate Shop token, or of any other Treasure Hunt drop.
0.72%
chance of at least one drop so far
- After your plan
- 0.72%
- Chance of nothing so far
- 99.3%
- Odds per chest
- 1 in 137,500
- Chests for a 50% chance
- 95,308
Each chest is a separate roll. Your next chest is always 1 in 137,500, whatever your total.
How to use the Fortnite token odds calculator
Pick the treasure
The calculator starts on Pirate Shop Access, the token. The menu also holds every other Treasure Hunt drop with its published odds.
Enter your chests
Type the chests you opened at normal odds. If you played through a Treasure Hour, put those chests in the second box and set the boost that was running.
Add your plan
Enter how many more chests you expect to open. After your plan shows where that would leave you.
Do not know your number? It is in the Quests tab, split across three quests. See how to check how many chests you have opened, or keep a live tally with the Fortnite chest counter.
Fortnite token chance by chests opened
The Pirate Shop Access token drops at 1 in 137,500 per chest in a normal match, according to the odds Epic’s Fortnite Status account posted on November 7, 2026. This is what that means over a number of chests:
| Chests opened | Chance of at least one token |
|---|---|
| 100 | 0.07% |
| 500 | 0.36% |
| 1,000 | 0.72% |
| 5,000 | 3.6% |
| 10,000 | 7.0% |
| 50,000 | 30.5% |
| 137,500 | 63.2% |
Before the official post, leakers passed around figures from 1 in 2,000 to 1 in 700,000. Those were wrong. If another calculator gives a very different answer, check which odds it is using.
How many chests for a real chance at the token
Turned around, the same formula gives the number of chests needed to reach a given chance. The last column assumes a steady 60 chests an hour, which is a brisk pace.
| Chance of at least one token | Chests needed | Play time |
|---|---|---|
| 1% | 1,382 | 23 hours |
| 5% | 7,053 | 118 hours |
| 10% | 14,488 | 241 hours |
| 25% | 39,557 | 659 hours |
| 50% | 95,308 | 1,588 hours |
| 90% | 316,605 | 5,277 hours |
No row reaches 100%, because no number of chests guarantees a drop. These are the odds for one player. Several outlets report that a drop goes to the whole squad, which Epic has not confirmed; if it does, a squad that all opens chests gets there faster.
Odds for every Fortnite treasure
The calculator covers all the treasures in the same odds post. The last column is the chance of at least one drop after 1,000 chests.
| Treasure | Odds per chest | After 1,000 chests |
|---|---|---|
| Gizmo (any) | 1 in 127 | over 99.9% |
| Weekly Loading Screen | 1 in 272 | 97.5% |
| Weekly Jam Track | 1 in 391 | 92.3% |
| Weekly Pickaxe or Back Bling | 1 in 568 | 82.8% |
| Weekly Vehicle and Decal | 1 in 7,813 | 12.0% |
| Pirate Shop Access | 1 in 137,500 | 0.72% |
| Weekly Gold Outfit | 1 in 1,562,500 | 0.06% |
Weekly treasures rotate, so a chest count for them only makes sense within one weekly window. Details are in the Fortnite Treasure Hunt guide.
How Treasure Hour boosts change the odds
During a Treasure Hour, Epic multiplies the drop rate. A chest opened at 1.5× is worth one and a half normal chests, and a chest at 2× is worth two.
| Boost | Token odds per chest | 120 chests is worth |
|---|---|---|
| None | 1 in 137,500 | 120 normal chests |
| 1.5× | 1 in 91,667 | 180 normal chests |
| 2× | 1 in 68,750 | 240 normal chests |
On November 7 the token was boosted 1.5× in the first window and 2× in the second. For later Saturdays, outlets report at least 1.5×. The weekly gold outfit and the vehicle bundle get much larger boosts, reported as at least 7.5× and 10×. The calculator fills in those reported figures when you pick a treasure. For treasures with no published boost it leaves the field at 1, and you can type your own.
The formula behind the calculator
The chance of at least one drop is one minus the chance of missing every time:
chance = 1 − (1 − 1/odds)chests
Boosted chests use the boosted rate, and the two groups are multiplied together. Two things follow:
- The result looks backwards. It is the chance that a run of chests like yours held a drop. It says nothing about your next chest, which is always 1 in 137,500 for the token.
- There is no pity system in the numbers. Epic’s post describes none, so the calculator assumes every chest is an independent roll.
The answer is only as good as the published odds and your own count. This page was last checked on November 11, 2026.
Questions and answers
What is the chance of getting the token in Fortnite?
1 in 137,500 per chest in a normal match, as posted by Epic’s Fortnite Status account on November 7, 2026. Over 1,000 chests that is about 0.72%.
How many chests do I need for a 50% chance at the token?
About 95,308 chests. At 60 chests an hour that is roughly 1,588 hours of play.
Does opening more chests make the next one more likely to drop the token?
No. Every chest is a separate roll at the same odds. More chests raise your overall chance, but no chest is ever due.
What are the token odds during a Treasure Hour?
At 1.5× the token is about 1 in 91,667 per chest, and at 2× about 1 in 68,750.
Is the Fortnite token chance 1 in 700,000?
No. That was one of several figures from leakers before Epic published the odds. The official figure is 1 in 137,500.
Does the calculator work for the weekly gold outfit?
Yes. Pick it in the Treasure menu. Its odds are 1 in 1,562,500 per chest, the rarest drop in the Treasure Hunt.
Is this calculator official?
No. It is a fan-made tool that applies the odds Epic published. It is not affiliated with Epic Games.